Korean Expat Community for National Disasters

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When I look back at what I wrote in March, April, and May, each month brought a fresh realization of just how different this year's weather has felt. Looking back at those three months now, a fairly consistent pattern emerges. I checked the latest forecast before summer fully arrives, and it confirmed what I'd been half expecting.

The Korea Meteorological Administration released its summer outlook for June through August, with temperatures expected to run above the seasonal average. But the heat isn't the only problem. The forecast also indicates a high likelihood of heavy rain events. We already saw signs of this in May. The rain that month wasn't a light drizzle — whenever it came, it poured heavily for hours at a time.

There's a larger factor behind this as well. Sea surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula are significantly higher than average. Warmer seas mean more moisture in the atmosphere, which affects both the intensity of heat and the amount of rainfall. Heat and heavy rain aren't separate issues — they're interconnected, and that's part of why the forecast looks the way it does.

At the end of my May entry, I wrote that I was already thinking about preparing for summer — when to run the air conditioner, how to avoid going out during the hottest hours. Those considerations still apply, but the forecast adds another layer to it. Heavy rain events are harder to plan around than heat. You can time around heat with some predictability. A sudden downpour that drops the temperature fifteen degrees in two hours is a different problem entirely.

There isn't much you can do with this information alone. Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties, and summers have surprised people in both directions before. But after going through March, April, and May — each hotter and more unusual than the year before — it's hard to expect this summer to suddenly return to normal. Both personal experience and the actual weather data point in the same direction. This summer is probably going to be harder than last year.